ISCAP Proceedings: Abstract Presentation
Is Digitalisation Green? Mobile Broadband, Energy Structure, and CO2 Emissions Across Developed and Developing Economies
Hetal Mistry
Pace University
Namchul Shin
Pace University
Abstract
Rapid expansion of digital connectivity has intensified debate over whether information and communication technologies can facilitate decarbonization or create additional environmental pressures through infrastructure deployment, electricity consumption, and rising data traffic. Global evidence simultaneously points to widening disparities in digital use and infrastructure across income groups (World Bank, 2024) and increasing concern over the energy and greenhouse-gas footprint of the digital sector (ITU and WBA, 2024). Recent empirical research further suggests that the environmental consequences of mobile broadband may depend strongly on countries’ stages of economic and technological development (Edquist & Bergmark, 2024). This study examines whether mobile broadband utilization is systematically associated with per-capita CO2 emissions and whether this relationship differs between developed and developing economies.
The analysis employs an unbalanced cross-country panel covering 140 countries during 2013-2022, with 823 country-year observations in the fully specified models. CO2 emissions per capita are modelled as a function of mobile broadband traffic, GDP, broadband affordability, technological access, fossil-fuel dependence in electricity generation, and industrial structure. A Technology Access Index is constructed using principal component analysis. Five progressively specified pooled OLS models with HC3 heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are complemented by development-group estimations, interaction analysis, and fixed-effects robustness tests.
The results show pronounced digitalization–carbon conditionality. Mobile broadband traffic initially shows a positive association with CO2 emissions (ß = 0.1215, p < 0.001), but this disappears after controlling for GDP (ß = 0.0103, p = 0.678), indicating confounding by economic scale. In the separate analyses for developed and developing economies, broadband traffic is negatively associated with emissions in developed economies (ß = -0.0718, p < 0.001) but remains insignificant in developing economies (ß = -0.0629, p = 0.158), consistent with Edquist and Bergmark (2024). Moreover, a 10-percentage-point increase in fossil-fuel electricity dependence is associated with approximately 10.6% higher emissions in developing economies, compared with 4.4% in developed economies. Technology access index remains positively associated with emissions, suggesting that infrastructure expansion carries environmental costs even where subsequent digital utilization may generate efficiency gains.
For the robustness check, we conducted fixed effects, in which the mobile broadband estimates remain negative but statistically insignificant. The findings indicate that broadband expansion is neither inherently green nor inherently carbon intensive. Overall, these findings suggest that digital sustainability depends critically on development conditions, energy systems, and technological maturity. Digital-development strategies, particularly in developing economies, should consequently integrate connectivity expansion with renewable energy deployment and energy-efficient digital infrastructure.
Keywords: Digitalization; Mobile Broadband; CO2 Emissions; Digital Infrastructure; Digital Sustainability
References
Edquist, H. & Bergmark, P. (2024). How is mobile broadband intensity affecting CO2 emissions? – A macro analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 48(2), 102668.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102668
ITU and WBA. 2024. Greening Digital Companies 2024. Geneva and Amsterdam.
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Environment/Documents/Publications/2024/GDC/Greening%20digital%20companies%202024.pdf
World Bank. (2024). Digital progress and trends report 2023. World Bank.
https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-2049-6